{"id":8573,"date":"2022-01-26T21:16:36","date_gmt":"2022-01-26T21:16:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/?p=8573"},"modified":"2022-01-26T21:16:40","modified_gmt":"2022-01-26T21:16:40","slug":"thinking-about-proxies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2022\/01\/26\/thinking-about-proxies\/","title":{"rendered":"Thinking about proxies"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='e-content'>Recent conversations at work have got me thinking about the proxy metrics that we use, and how much nuance and detail they hide.<\/p>\n<h1>Cybersecurity<\/h1>\n<p>Last week, we had a look at a tool that presented a \u2018cybersecurity dashboard\u2019 for our organisation. It is a powerful tool, with lots of capabilities for investigating and remediating security issues across our IT infrastructure estate. But what struck me was a big number presented front-and-centre on the first page. It looked a bit like this<sup id=\"fnref-8573-1\"><a class=\"jetpack-footnote\" title=\"Read footnote.\" href=\"#fn-8573-1\">1<\/a><\/sup>:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-8572\" src=\"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/DraggedImage-2.jpeg\" width=\"716\" height=\"686\" srcset=\"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/DraggedImage-2.jpeg 716w, https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/DraggedImage-2-300x287.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/DraggedImage-2-700x671.jpeg 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 716px) 100vw, 716px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>It was simply a percentage. I\u2019ve been pondering it since, wondering if it us useful or not.<\/p>\n<p>80.4%. Is this good? If that\u2019s my organisation\u2019s score, can I sleep well at night? When I was at university, an average score of 70% in your exams and coursework meant that you were awarded with a first-class degree. So that number has always stayed with me and has felt intrinsically \u2018good\u2019. 80.4% is substantially higher than this. But what about that other 19.6%? Can we relax, or do we need to keep pushing to 100%? Can you ever truly be 100% secure if you\u2019re running <em>any<\/em> kind of IT system?<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps it is meant as a useful jumping off point for investigation. Or it is meant to be used over time, i.e. last week we were 78.9% and now we\u2019re 80.4%, so things are going in the right direction. Maybe both. I\u2019m not sure.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a common idea that executives don\u2019t want the detail. They simply want to see a big green light that says that things are ok. If there\u2019s no green, they want to know that things are being dealt with in order to bring the amber or red thing back to green again. In the example above, although the \u2018speed gauge\u2019 is blue, it is still an attempt to aggregate all of the cybersecurity data across an organisation into a simple number. To me, it feels dangerous to boil it down to a single proxy metric.<\/p>\n<p>I likened the single score to a song being reduced to its average frequency. Music can make us laugh, sing or cry. It can make our pulses race and our hearts throb. But the beauty and nuance is completely lost if you take the average of all of the sound and boil it down to one long continuous tone. (<a title=\"Riley Shaw: Taking the average tone\" href=\"https:\/\/rileyjshaw.com\/blog\/taking-the-average-tone\">Someone has actually done this<\/a> so you can hear examples for yourself.<sup id=\"fnref-8573-2\"><a class=\"jetpack-footnote\" title=\"Read footnote.\" href=\"#fn-8573-2\">2<\/a><\/sup>)<\/p>\n<h2>Inflation<\/h2>\n<p>Food writer, journalist and activist Jack Monroe wrote an incredibly insightful thread on the latest inflation figures. The news headlines were <a title=\"The Guardian: UK inflation rises to highest level in almost 30 years at 5.4%\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2022\/jan\/19\/uk-inflation-hits-near-three-decade-high-rising-to-54?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other\">screaming that the inflation number is 5.4% \u2014 a 30-year high<\/a>. However, this hides the nuance of what exactly has been increasing in price and what has remained static. As usual, the poorest in society bear a disproportionate brunt of the increase. For people that depend on the cheapest goods, inflation is much higher, as the cost of those goods have been increasing at a much higher rate. Her original thread is well worth a read:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Woke up this morning to the radio talking about the cost of living rising a further 5%. It infuriates me the index that they use for this calculation, which grossly underestimates the real cost of inflation as it happens to people with the least. Allow me to briefly explain.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Jack Monroe (@BootstrapCook) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BootstrapCook\/status\/1483778776697909252?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 19, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>It was wonderful to see this thread get so much attention. Today Monroe announced that <a title=\"Office for National Statistics: Measuring the changing prices and costs faced by households\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.ons.gov.uk\/2022\/01\/26\/measuring-the-changing-prices-and-costs-faced-by-households\/\">the Office of National Statistics will be making changes<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Delighted to be able to tell you that the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ONS?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@ONS<\/a> have just announced that they are going to be changing the way they collect and report on the cost of food prices and inflation to take into consideration a wider range of income levels and household circumstances \ud83d\udc4a <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/VimesBootsIndex?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#VimesBootsIndex<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Jack Monroe (@BootstrapCook) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BootstrapCook\/status\/1486308687551553538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 26, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Financial data<\/h2>\n<p>I\u2019ve been working in Financial Services for over 20 years. During the <a title=\"Wikipedia: Financial crisis of 2007\u20132008 \" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008\">financial crisis of 2007\u20132008<\/a> I was employed by one of the banks that suffered terrible losses. In <a title=\"Shareholder Report on UBS's Write-Downs\" href=\"http:\/\/maths-fi.com\/ubs-shareholder-report.pdf\">the lengthy report that was published to shareholders<\/a>, it was notable that there was a dependency on a number of metrics such as <a title=\"Wikipedia: Value at Risk\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Value_at_risk\">Value at Risk<\/a> which were in effect \u2019green\u2019 even when the global financial system started to unravel. The actual problem was the sheer amount of toxic financial products that were on the balance sheet; as soon as the assumption of how much they were worth was revised, it triggered eye-watering losses.<\/p>\n<p>From the report:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>UBS&#8217;s Market Risk framework relies upon VaR and Stress Loss to set and monitor market risks at a portfolio level. <em>[p19]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>In the context of the CDO structuring business and Negative Basis and AMPS trades, IB MRC [Market Risk Control] relied primarily upon VaR and Stress limits and monitoring to provide risk control for the CDO desk. As noted above, there were no Operational limits on the CDO Warehouse and throughout 2006 and 2007, there were no notional limits on the retention of unhedged Super Senior positions and AMPS Super Senior positions, or the CDO Warehouse\u2026 <em>[p20]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In other words, the amount of \u2018good quality\u2019 <a title=\"Wikipedia: Collateralised debt obligation\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Collateralized_debt_obligation\">collateralised debt obligations<\/a> (CDOs) that could be held on the balance sheet wasn\u2019t subject to a cap. These were the instruments that were later found to be \u2018toxic\u2019.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>MRC VaR methodologies relied on the AAA rating of the Super Senior positions. The AAA rating determined the relevant product-type time series to be used in calculating VaR. In turn, the product-type time series determined the volatility sensitivities to be applied to Super Senior positions. Until Q3 2007, the 5-year time series had demonstrated very low levels of volatility sensitivities. As a consequence, even unhedged Super Senior positions contributed little to VaR utilisation. <em>[p20]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This means that the model, which produced a \u2018green\u2019 status for Value at Risk, was based on the historical data which said that \u2018everything is fine\u2019. No consideration seemed to have been taken on the sheer amount of CDOs that were being held. As the financial crisis unfolded and it became clear that the assets were no longer worth 100%, the revaluations resulted in nearly USD 50bn in losses.<\/p>\n<h2>Proxies should be a jumping off point<\/h2>\n<p>Proxies are attractive as they often boil down complex things into simple metrics that we think we can interpret and understand. Wherever I see or use them I need to think about what assumptions they are built on and to check that they are not being substituted for the important details.<\/p>\n<div class=\"footnotes\">\n<hr \/>\n<ol>\n<li id=\"fn-8573-1\">Taken from the <a title=\"Microsoft Windows Defender ATP Fall Creators Update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/security\/blog\/2017\/06\/27\/whats-new-in-windows-defender-atp-fall-creators-update\/\">Microsoft Windows Defender ATP Fall Creators Update<\/a>\u00a0<a title=\"Return to main content.\" href=\"#fnref-8573-1\">\u21a9<\/a><\/li>\n<li id=\"fn-8573-2\">Lots of people on <a title=\"Gearspace: How to find the average frequency (hz) of a portion of music?\" href=\"https:\/\/gearspace.com\/board\/newbie-audio-engineering-production-question-zone\/1208105-how-find-average-frequency-hz-portion-music.html\">forums<\/a> seem <a title=\"Audacity Forum: Using Audacity to find out the average frequency of a song\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.audacityteam.org\/viewtopic.php?t=88704\">baffled<\/a> as to why anyone would want to do that. I <em>love<\/em> that someone has done it.\u00a0<a title=\"Return to main content.\" href=\"#fnref-8573-2\">\u21a9<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span hidden class=\"__iawmlf-post-loop-links\" data-iawmlf-links=\"[{&quot;id&quot;:3285,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/rileyjshaw.com\\\/blog\\\/taking-the-average-tone&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;http:\\\/\\\/web-wp.archive.org\\\/web\\\/20260204091956\\\/https:\\\/\\\/rileyjshaw.com\\\/blog\\\/taking-the-average-tone\\\/&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/rileyjshaw.com\\\/blog\\\/taking-the-average-tone\\\/&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-01 03:51:04&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-04 17:43:37&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-23 16:50:15&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:503}],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-23 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03:51:06&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-04 17:43:38&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-25 03:58:13&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-12 10:48:25&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-27 14:57:28&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200}],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-27 14:57:28&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;}]\"><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<a href=\"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2022\/01\/26\/thinking-about-proxies\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Permalink to Thinking about proxies\"><div class='e-content p-summary'>Recent conversations at work have got me thinking about the proxy metrics that we use, and how much nuance and detail they hide. Cybersecurity Last week, we had a look at a tool that presented a \u2018cybersecurity dashboard\u2019 for our organisation. It is a powerful tool, with lots of capabilities for investigating and remediating security [&hellip;]<\/div>\n<\/a>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"webmentions_disabled_pings":false,"webmentions_disabled":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"activitypub_content_warning":"","activitypub_content_visibility":"","activitypub_max_image_attachments":3,"activitypub_interaction_policy_quote":"anyone","activitypub_status":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[13,16,20],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-8573","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-news","7":"category-technology","8":"category-work","9":"h-entry","11":"hentry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12730,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2025\/11\/22\/weeknotes-351-back-in-barcelona\/","url_meta":{"origin":8573,"position":0},"title":"Weeknotes #351 \u2014 Back in Barcelona","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"22 November 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Sunrise over the Mediterranean as seen on my morning run. Most of this week was spent in Barcelona at the Gartner IT Symposium\/Xpo. It\u2019s the third time I\u2019ve been1, and I now feel I know exactly how to get the most out of my time there. The view from the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Weeknotes&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Weeknotes","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/category\/weeknotes\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Sunrise over the Mediterranean, with two silhouetted palm trees in the foreground.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/DraggedImage-5-scaled.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/DraggedImage-5-scaled.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/DraggedImage-5-scaled.jpeg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/DraggedImage-5-scaled.jpeg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/DraggedImage-5-scaled.jpeg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/DraggedImage-5-scaled.jpeg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10520,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2023\/11\/05\/weeknotes-245-dog-cat\/","url_meta":{"origin":8573,"position":1},"title":"Weeknotes #245 \u2014 Dog cat","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"5 November 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A typically busy week that flew by. 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I sounded worse than I felt \u2014 I was in full Barry White mode \u2014 but a quick straw poll of friends informed me that heading into work is a no-no in this post-pandemic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Weeknotes&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Weeknotes","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/category\/weeknotes\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/DraggedImage-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/DraggedImage-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/DraggedImage-2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/DraggedImage-2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/DraggedImage-2.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9573,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2022\/10\/24\/thoughts-on-wb-40-at-openuk\/","url_meta":{"origin":8573,"position":3},"title":"Thoughts on WB-40 at OpenUK","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"24 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The latest episode of the excellent WB-40 podcast is filled with a series of interesting interviews from the recent OpenUK Open Source Software thought leadership event. The conversations are wide-ranging and well a listen. One of the discussions noted that open source software development was resilient in the face of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Podcasts&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Podcasts","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/category\/podcasts\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9767,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2022\/12\/18\/weeknotes-199-shallow-snow-deep-work\/","url_meta":{"origin":8573,"position":4},"title":"Weeknotes #199 \u2014 Shallow snow, deep work","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"18 December 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"An eventful and productive week. On Sunday night the snow came down and we woke up on Monday to a few inches of snow. School were quick to text us that they were open and that they were expecting pupils to attend; our children were not impressed. 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