{"id":13406,"date":"2026-02-14T17:52:07","date_gmt":"2026-02-14T17:52:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/?p=13406"},"modified":"2026-02-14T17:52:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-14T17:52:09","slug":"something-big-is-happening-but-it-doesnt-add-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2026\/02\/14\/something-big-is-happening-but-it-doesnt-add-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Something big is happening; but it doesn\u2019t add up"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='e-content'><span hidden class=\"__iawmlf-post-loop-links\" data-iawmlf-links=\"[{&quot;id&quot;:7021,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/shumer.dev\\\/something-big-is-happening&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;http:\\\/\\\/web-wp.archive.org\\\/web\\\/20260213215459\\\/https:\\\/\\\/shumer.dev\\\/something-big-is-happening&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-02-14 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14:40:31&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-02-23 17:31:34&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-02-26 21:54:16&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-02 01:13:19&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-05 06:26:20&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-08 18:19:39&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-13 00:49:36&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-17 16:23:59&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-24 18:05:22&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-29 18:00:01&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-03 10:52:10&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-07 19:56:23&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-14 04:29:16&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-18 17:26:37&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-22 04:48:01&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-27 15:53:39&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-04 15:54:30&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-08 10:52:55&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-11 14:53:53&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-16 09:03:19&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-21 11:54:39&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-25 10:01:58&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-28 15:18:54&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-06-02 05:12:08&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200}],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-06-02 05:12:08&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;}]\"><\/span>\n<p>This week, multiple people sent me a link to Matt Shumer\u2019s post that <em><a href=\"https:\/\/shumer.dev\/something-big-is-happening\" title=\"Matt Shumer: Something Big is Happening\">Something Big Is Happening<\/a><\/em>. In the post, he sounds the alarm that AI is coming for most white-collar jobs. It\u2019s definitely worth reading:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>If you extend the trend (and it&#8217;s held for years with no sign of flattening) we&#8217;re looking at AI that can work independently for days within the next year. Weeks within two. Month-long projects within three.<\/p><p>[Dario] Amodei [(CEO of AI company Anthropic)] has said that AI models &#8220;substantially smarter than almost all humans at almost all tasks&#8221; are on track for 2026 or 2027.<\/p><p>Let that land for a second. If AI is smarter than most PhDs, do you really think it can&#8217;t do most office jobs?<\/p><p>Think about what that means for your work.<\/p><p>[\u2026]<\/p><p>I think the honest answer is that nothing that can be done on a computer is safe in the medium term. If your job happens on a screen (if the core of what you do is reading, writing, analyzing, deciding, communicating through a keyboard) then AI is coming for significant parts of it. The timeline isn&#8217;t &#8220;someday.&#8221; It&#8217;s already started.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>His advice, which is to start paying for Claude or ChatGPT and using it to do more than search for information, is not bad guidance, but it seems disproportionate to the threat that he covers in the first part of the article. There is, Shumer implies, a short window of time in which you can be \u201cthe most valuable person in the room\u201d by supercharging your productivity with these tools. Most people won\u2019t do this, of course. He argues \u2014 correctly, I think \u2014 that if you spend an hour a day experimenting with the software you will gain a significant advantage over your peers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>One hour a day, every day. If you do this for the next six months, you will understand what&#8217;s coming better than 99% of the people around you. That&#8217;s not an exaggeration. Almost nobody is doing this right now. The bar is on the floor.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The terrifying stuff is where he talks about needing to \u201cget your financial house in order\u201d, building up savings and avoiding \u201ctaking on new debt that assumes your current income is guaranteed\u201d, presumably because of the coming wave of job losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p>However, there\u2019s something about where all this is headed at a macroeconomic level that doesn\u2019t add up for me. The massive investment in the technology, specifically processors and data centres for both AI training and inference, is largely funded by debt. Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are losing money. Fortune <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/11\/12\/openai-cash-burn-rate-annual-losses-2028-profitable-2030-financial-documents\/\" title=\"Fortune: OpenAI says it plans to report stunning annual losses through 2028\u2014and then turn wildly profitable just two years later\">reported in November<\/a> that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>OpenAI is plotting a dramatic arc toward profitability through the end of the decade, but that growing won\u2019t come without some pain. The company reportedly expects to rack up massive annual losses each year, including roughly $74 billion in operating losses in 2028 alone, then pivot to meaningful profits by 2030, according to financial documents obtained by The Wall Street Journal.\u200b<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>In December, <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/article\/anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-openai-chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-safety-donald-trump\/\" title=\"Fortune: Anthropic is all in on \u2018AI safety\u2019\u2014and that\u2019s helping the $183 billion startup win over big business\">they wrote about Anthropic<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>To be sure, Anthropic is nowhere near profitable today: It was pacing to end 2025 having consumed $2.8 billion more cash than it took in, according to recent news accounts citing forecasts provided to investors. But the company is also on track to break even in 2028, according to those projections\u2014two years ahead of OpenAI.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>If a bunch of us pay $20\/month for premium access, with a tiny few paying $200\/month for the highest tier, I don\u2019t see how this goes anywhere near covering the costs. (Yes, I realise that there are Enterprise plans and paid tiers for API access, but the point still stands.) If this tsunami of AI turns up and eventually takes on most white-collar jobs, making loads of us redundant, there will be even fewer of us able to pay. OpenAI are testing adverts in ChatGPT and they may help, but I don\u2019t see how displaying them to people who are asking the computer to do something and then coming back days later to see what it did will fund the operation either. Microsoft Copilot, which leverages AI technology from OpenAI and Anthropic, is paid for on a per-seat basis. Job losses would mean fewer seats and less revenue. Maybe the people that are left with jobs will find the cost of their licences increasing in response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p>Even Google, which can use its vast ad revenue to fund Gemini, its own AI product, and keep it ad-free, would likely have its revenues go down if there is a seismic economic downturn. If people can\u2019t afford things because they are unemployed, what\u2019s the point of advertising something to them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p>Maybe I\u2019m looking for logic that doesn\u2019t exist. Like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/2000\/04\/joy-2\/\" title=\"Wired: Why the Future Doesn't Need Us\">Bill Joy said in his Wired magazine article 26 years ago<\/a><sup><a id=\"ffn1\" href=\"#fn1\" class=\"footnote\">1<\/a><\/sup>, people will invent technology and do things without understanding the consequences, just because they can:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Perhaps it is always hard to see the bigger impact while you are in the vortex of a change. Failing to understand the consequences of our inventions while we are in the rapture of discovery and innovation seems to be a common fault of scientists and technologists; we have long been driven by the overarching desire to know that is the nature of science&#8217;s quest, not stopping to notice that the progress to newer and more powerful technologies can take on a life of its own.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>At this point, while we don\u2019t know exactly where we\u2019re going, I can\u2019t disagree with Shumer\u2019s advice: start using the tools in more advanced ways, figuring out what does and doesn\u2019t work in your context. As for the bigger picture, I guess we\u2019ll just have to cross our fingers and hope?<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\t<li><a id=\"fn1\"><\/a>Joy\u2019s article is something that <a href=\"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2023\/05\/06\/increasingly-obscured-future\/\" title=\"Andrew Doran: Increasingly obscured future\">I\u2019ve come back to<\/a> more than anything else I\u2019ve read in my life. <a href=\"#ffn1\">&#8617;<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<a href=\"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2026\/02\/14\/something-big-is-happening-but-it-doesnt-add-up\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Permalink to Something big is happening; but it doesn\u2019t add up\"><div class='e-content p-summary'>This week, multiple people sent me a link to Matt Shumer\u2019s post that Something Big Is Happening. In the post, he sounds the alarm that AI is coming for most white-collar jobs. It\u2019s definitely worth reading: If you extend the trend (and it&#8217;s held for years with no sign of flattening) we&#8217;re looking at AI [&hellip;]<\/div>\n<\/a>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"webmentions_disabled_pings":false,"webmentions_disabled":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"activitypub_content_warning":"","activitypub_content_visibility":"","activitypub_max_image_attachments":3,"activitypub_interaction_policy_quote":"anyone","activitypub_status":"federated","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[16,20],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-13406","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-technology","7":"category-work","8":"h-entry","10":"hentry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":10082,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2023\/05\/08\/the-hallucinations-of-ai-creators\/","url_meta":{"origin":13406,"position":0},"title":"The hallucinations of AI creators","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"8 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Naomi Klein, writing in The Guardian: The former Google CEO Eric Schmidt summed up the case when he told the Atlantic that AI\u2019s risks were worth taking, because \u201cIf you think about the biggest problems in the world, they are all really hard \u2013 climate change, human organizations, and so\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Business&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Business","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/category\/business\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10388,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2023\/09\/04\/when-good-is-the-enemy-of-the-perfect\/","url_meta":{"origin":13406,"position":1},"title":"When good is the enemy of the perfect","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"4 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"I\u2019ve been working with Microsoft Teams Premium for a couple of weeks and it has got me worried. Part of the Teams Premium bundle is the ability to summarise a meeting recording, giving you an AI-generated set of collapsible bullet points of the key things that were discussed. 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