{"id":11045,"date":"2024-08-09T14:56:03","date_gmt":"2024-08-09T14:56:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/?p=11045"},"modified":"2024-08-09T14:56:05","modified_gmt":"2024-08-09T14:56:05","slug":"how-civil-wars-start","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2024\/08\/09\/how-civil-wars-start\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud83d\udcda How Civil Wars Start"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='e-content'><span hidden class=\"__iawmlf-post-loop-links\" data-iawmlf-links=\"[{&quot;id&quot;:1570,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.barbarafwalter.com\\\/how-civil-wars-start&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;http:\\\/\\\/web-wp.archive.org\\\/web\\\/20250928165230\\\/https:\\\/\\\/www.barbarafwalter.com\\\/how-civil-wars-start&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-02-03 23:34:59&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:206},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-02-08 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14:37:13&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:404},&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;},{&quot;id&quot;:1577,&quot;href&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.v-dem.net&quot;,&quot;archived_href&quot;:&quot;http:\\\/\\\/web-wp.archive.org\\\/web\\\/20260202234839\\\/https:\\\/\\\/www.v-dem.net\\\/&quot;,&quot;redirect_href&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;checks&quot;:[{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-02-03 23:37:16&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-02-11 17:51:43&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-02-17 12:46:17&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-02-21 23:51:50&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-06 20:38:09&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-10 12:26:49&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-19 15:49:55&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-26 06:55:20&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-04 20:13:07&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-04-19 18:59:27&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-10 03:58:56&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-06-05 14:37:15&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200}],&quot;broken&quot;:false,&quot;last_checked&quot;:{&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-06-05 14:37:15&quot;,&quot;http_code&quot;:200},&quot;process&quot;:&quot;done&quot;}]\"><\/span>\n<p>Finished reading <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.barbarafwalter.com\/how-civil-wars-start\" title=\"Barbara F Walter: How Civil Wars Start\">How Civil Wars Start<\/a><\/em> by Barbara F. Walter. I picked this up from <a href=\"https:\/\/heatherburns.tech\/2024\/01\/14\/2023s-best-reads-and-listens\/\" title=\"Heather Burns: 2023\u2019s best reads and listens\">Heather Burns\u2019 2023 \u2018get ready for the coming US election\u2019 reading list<\/a>. The title is perfect, as the book is literally a narrative that explains the research into the conditions that can typically lead to civil war. It\u2019s been interesting to read this in such close proximity to <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/2024_United_Kingdom_riots\" title=\"Wikipedia: 2024 United Kingdom riots\">the riots in the UK<\/a> that have been taking place over the past week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p>A central point of the book is that countries that are neither full democracies nor full autocracies as defined by the \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.systemicpeace.org\/polityproject.html\" title=\"Center for Systemic Peace: Polity Project\">polity score<\/a>\u2019 \u2014 known as \u2018anocracies\u2019 \u2014 are the <em>most<\/em> likely to experience instability and\/or armed conflict. There is danger as a country moves through the anocracy zone, whether that is a country that has declined <em>from<\/em> being a full democracy, or a country that is moving at speed <em>towards<\/em> full democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.systemicpeace.org\/polityproject.html\" title=\"Center for Systemic Peace: Polity Project\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11043\" src=\"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-06-08-2024-07-30.png\" alt=\"From the Center for Systemic Peace\u2019s Polity Project\" srcset=\"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-06-08-2024-07-30.png 800w, https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-06-08-2024-07-30-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-06-08-2024-07-30-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-06-08-2024-07-30-700x525.png 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p>The USA <a href=\"https:\/\/www.systemicpeace.org\/polity\/P5UnitedStates2020.pdf\" title=\"Center for Systemic Peace: United States Polity5 regime codes\">slipped from a rating of 10 in 2015 to a rating of 5 in 2020<\/a>, following the insurrection on 6 January that year. It became an anocracy for the first time in over two centuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p>Once a country is in the anocracy zone, the biggest warning sign of a civil war is the appearance of a faction, a political group based on ethnic, religious or racial identity rather than ideology. Civil war is even more likely in countries divided into two dominant groups, where one group represents 40\u201360% of the population. The group that once held power and feels it slipping away is likely to be the one that starts the violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>People may tolerate years of poverty, unemployment, and discrimination. They may accept shoddy schools, poor hospitals, and neglected infrastructure. But there is one thing they will not tolerate: losing status in a place they believe is theirs. In the twenty-first century, the most dangerous factions are once-dominant groups facing decline.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent years, social media has accelerated this process. The proportion of Americans getting some of their news from social media has increased from 23% in 2013 to over 70% today. The platforms promote \u201ca sense of perpetual crisis\u201d. The riots in the UK over this past week are fresh in my mind as I re-read this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Disinformation spread by extremists discredits peaceful protesters, convinces citizens that counterattacks by opposition groups are likely, and creates a sense\u2014often a false sense\u2014that moderates within their own movement are not doing enough to protect the population, or are ineffective and weak compared to the opposition. It\u2019s at this point that violence breaks out: when citizens become convinced that there is no hope of fixing their problems through conventional means.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not sure that this is <em>exactly<\/em> what is happening right now in the UK \u2014 so far the riots don\u2019t seem to have spread to moderate people \u2014 but I can see how it might happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p>Walter weaves the <em><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ten_stages_of_genocide\" title=\"Wikipedia: Ten stages of genocide\">ten stages of genocide<\/a><\/em> into her narrative. According to Wikipedia, stage 4 is \u2018dehumanisation\u2019, where \u201cOne group denies the humanity of the other group. Members of it are equated with animals, vermin, insects, or diseases.\u201d The ongoing narrative about refugees and asylum seekers in the UK\u2019s most popular newspapers promotes this way of thinking, and has been so painful to see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/mastodon.well.com\/@ianb\/112904297815187892\" title=\"Ian Betteridge on Mastodon\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1179\" height=\"1361\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11044\" src=\"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-08-08-2024-07-34.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-08-08-2024-07-34.png 1179w, https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-08-08-2024-07-34-260x300.png 260w, https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-08-08-2024-07-34-887x1024.png 887w, https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-08-08-2024-07-34-768x887.png 768w, https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Image-08-08-2024-07-34-606x700.png 606w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1179px) 100vw, 1179px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cTHE \u2018SWARM\u2019 ON OUR STREETS\u201d is a disgusting headline. The Daily Mail has been pushing this agenda for as long as I can remember. It may be impossible to draw a direct line between these front pages and the riots that have been happening in the UK over the past week, but they can\u2019t help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p>The author also mentions <a href=\"https:\/\/www.v-dem.net\" title=\"Varieties of Democracy\">Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem)<\/a>, an organisation that publishes fascinating reports and datasets on how countries around the world are democratising or autocratizing. The recent reports are jarring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>V-Dem, the Swedish research institute, collects detailed data on the different types of democracies around the world and then rates them on a 100-point scale with 100 being the most democratic and 0 being the least. According to the institute, Spain has suffered one of the worst declines in Western Europe, followed by Greece, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Austria. Nordic countries, the most liberal in the world, have also dropped since 2010: Denmark, the number one ranked democracy for most of the past hundred years, has been downgraded 10 points on V-Dem\u2019s scale; Sweden has been downgraded 35. The swift rate of democratic decay around the world has been so rapid that V-Dem issued its first \u201cAutocratization Alert\u201d in 2020.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The book explains that the most effective way for a country to avoid violence and civil war is to strengthen the quality of its governance, and make people feel that the systems and institutions are working. People need to value their democracy and believe that it is effective. Doing this is \u201csignificantly more important\u201d to avoid conflict than improving the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201c\u2026three features stood out: \u201cthe rule of law\u201d (the equal and impartial application of legal procedure); \u201cvoice and accountability\u201d (the extent to which citizens are able to participate in selecting their government, as well as freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media); and \u201cgovernment effectiveness\u201d (the quality of public services and the quality and independence of the civil service). These three features reflect the degree to which a government serves its people and the degree to which its political institutions are strong, legitimate, and accountable. Improvements in governance tend to reduce the subsequent risk of war.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The book is a quick read on a tough subject, giving an excellent overview of the resources and evidence available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<a href=\"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2024\/08\/09\/how-civil-wars-start\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Permalink to \ud83d\udcda How Civil Wars Start\"><div class='e-content p-summary'>Finished reading How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter. I picked this up from Heather Burns\u2019 2023 \u2018get ready for the coming US election\u2019 reading list. The title is perfect, as the book is literally a narrative that explains the research into the conditions that can typically lead to civil war. It\u2019s been interesting [&hellip;]<\/div>\n<\/a>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"webmentions_disabled_pings":false,"webmentions_disabled":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"activitypub_content_warning":"","activitypub_content_visibility":"","activitypub_max_image_attachments":3,"activitypub_interaction_policy_quote":"anyone","activitypub_status":"federate","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-11045","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-books","7":"h-entry","9":"hentry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":3771,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2017\/10\/12\/not-quite-paradise\/","url_meta":{"origin":11045,"position":0},"title":"Not Quite Paradise","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"12 October 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"I picked up the audio version of this book after returning from our recent holiday in Sri Lanka. I had so many lingering thoughts about the country and I wanted to get another perspective before it all faded out of my memory. This is very different to Elephant Complex, a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Books&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Books","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/category\/books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/6714133.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3492,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2017\/09\/09\/elephant-complex-travels-in-sri-lanka\/","url_meta":{"origin":11045,"position":1},"title":"Elephant Complex: Travels in Sri Lanka","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"9 September 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Read this book before and during my holiday in Sri Lanka. Gives an excellent overview of the country and its history which reveals itself to the reader gradually, culminating in an account of the end of the civil war. The chapters are sequenced and themed in a general anti-clockwise journey\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Books&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Books","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/category\/books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/29114247.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3497,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2017\/09\/09\/the-devil-in-the-flesh\/","url_meta":{"origin":11045,"position":2},"title":"The Devil In The Flesh","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"9 September 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"A really good read, particularly when put in context of the author\u2019s short life and the time it was written. I read the Melville House edition of the book and enjoyed the afterword by the translator almost as much as the work itself. There is a farcical scene in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Books&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Books","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/category\/books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/12053624.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":12989,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2026\/01\/04\/faithful-ruslan\/","url_meta":{"origin":11045,"position":3},"title":"\ud83d\udcda Faithful Ruslan","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"4 January 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Finished reading Faithful Ruslan by Georgi Vladimov. Published in 1975 in West Germany, it is the story of the closure of a Soviet prison camp in the late 1950s, told from the perspective of one of the camp\u2019s guard dogs. The foreword to the first English edition, written by Michael\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Books&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Books","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/category\/books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"\u201cThe warm human hand was laid on your forehead; its touch was affectionate and solicitous, making a pleasant languor spread through your whole being and driving away all suspicion. You lifted your head to respond to that touch with the ultimate sign of trust: taking the hand between your teeth and holding it briefly and gently without hurting the man.\u201d \u2014 Faithful Ruslan by Georgi Vladimov","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DraggedImage.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DraggedImage.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DraggedImage.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DraggedImage.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DraggedImage.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10598,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2023\/12\/11\/10598\/","url_meta":{"origin":11045,"position":4},"title":"\ud83d\udcda Finished reading Blitzed: Drugs\u2026","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"11 December 2023","format":"status","excerpt":"\ud83d\udcda Finished reading Blitzed: Drugs in Nazi Germany by Norman Ohler. This book doesn\u2019t mess around with any preamble, but dives straight into its subject matter. The first half of the book covers the increasing and then widespread use of drugs across Germany in the lead-up to World War II.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Snippets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Snippets","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/category\/snippets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1ADDD922-E65E-4D63-8EFA-EC729384C9A6.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1ADDD922-E65E-4D63-8EFA-EC729384C9A6.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1ADDD922-E65E-4D63-8EFA-EC729384C9A6.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1ADDD922-E65E-4D63-8EFA-EC729384C9A6.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1ADDD922-E65E-4D63-8EFA-EC729384C9A6.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":76,"url":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/2004\/11\/29\/anna-karenina\/","url_meta":{"origin":11045,"position":5},"title":"Anna Karenina","author":"Andrew Doran","date":"29 November 2004","format":false,"excerpt":"I finally managed to finish Anna Karenina last week after about four months of reading. It takes me so long to read a book as the only time I seem to get (or, rather, make for myself) to read is my daily commute on the tube. However, that didn't put\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Books&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Books","link":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/category\/books\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11045","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11045"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11046,"href":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11045\/revisions\/11046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/andrewdoran.uk\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}